When is history predictive of future behavior? Who can change? Who will change? Can sociopaths change? What is meaningful versus unmeaningful change? I would argue that history is most predictive of future behavior when the mindset of the individual—especially the motivational mindset of the individual—remains static. By this I mean that short of a radicalized mindset, one can assume that the individual's historical behaviors and attitudes will not change, at least not meaningfully. So motivation goes directly to the question who is likely, or unlikely, to make changes in historical behavior patterns. One must ask, what is the individual's motivation to change previous beha …
